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Rhaenyra is struggling to hold onto power. House of the Dragon Season 3 has shown that winning the Iron Throne is more than just getting to sit on it.
She now has decisions to make if she wants to keep people loyal to her. While she wants the smallfolk to praise her, she’s going to struggle with the nobles after her most recent decision to go through their stores.
Then there’s the problem of money. She doesn’t have any after Larys Strong and Tyland Lannister managed to wipe the treasury clean. Just how long does she have?
Helaena Knows Aegon Will Sit on the Throne Again on House of the Dragon
At the end of House of the Dragon Season 2, Helaena told Aemond what’s to come. She made it clear that Aegon will be King again. While he won’t sit on the Iron Throne, he will sit on a throne made of wood. This is a hint that Aegon will suffer the injuries that he does in Fire & Blood by George R.R. Martin*. He jumps from Sunfyre and breaks both of his legs, never to walk again.
She also told Aemond that he is going to die. That’s to come with the Battle Above the God’s Eye, and we know that Aemond is afraid of that vision coming true. It’s why he didn’t really want to go to Harrenhal in the first place.
So, Rhaenyra is going to lose her crown eventually. The question is when.
A Case of the Mad Queen?
In the book, Rhaenyra’s downfall happens after the First Battle of Tumbleton. Two of her dragonriders betray her, and she decides to imprison the others, declaring them traitors. She even imprisons Corlys Velaryon.
As she becomes more and more panicked and delusional, she fears attacks from everyone else. Eventually, the smallfolk turn on her.
The major turning point is when Helaena is killed. In the book, it’s not clear if she falls or is pushed, but the smallfolk blame Rhaenyra. Helaena was an innocent in all of it, and the smallfolk adored her, so her death leads to the people storming the Red Keep and the Dragonpit.
Sadly, it leads to the death of the dragons in the Dragonpit, including Helaena’s beautiful Dreamfyre. Rhaenyra is forced to flee King’s Landing on Syrax, back to Dragonstone. Aegon can take King’s Landing back.
We’re already seeing signs of Rhaenyra’s mental state deteriorating on House of the Dragon Season 3 Episode 3. This is likely a hint that the Mad Queen arc could happen, and we may see Rhaenyra lose the Iron Throne by the end of the season. If not by the end, then definitely toward the start of the fourth and final season.
House of the Dragon* airs on Sundays on HBO and HBO Max.
