I love looking at the linear ratings and the factors that go into a TV show being cancelled or renewed. That brings me to my renewal scorecards, which I used to do at other websites. Now I’m breaking them down by network and bringing you the ABC renewal scorecard today. The rest will follow throughout the week.
There are eight scripted shows on the network right now. I only really look at scripted, because reality shows are a completely different beast — there are vastly different elements that go into the renewal and cancellation decisions.
I’ll also split this by comedy and drama, as a drama show isn’t going to be a cancelled for a new comedy (and vice versa). We all tend to watch one over the other in a lot of cases.
ABC Renewal Scorecard Chances
I always do this by probability. While the linear ratings are a great sign about whether a show is going to be cancelled or not, it’s not the only sign. So, you’ll see the following:
- Officially Renewed
- A Sure Thing
- A Safe Bet
- 50/50 Chance
- Likely Cancelled
- Unofficially Cancelled
- Officially Cancelled
- Too Soon to Tell
Now, there are talks already of Grey’s Anatomy’s future, and I can’t overlook that as I get into this post. There is a good chance of a renewal, but at a shorter episode count, which is likely to be around 13 to 15 episodes. This will also likely mean a reduced series regular cast, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. So, I’m sure you can guess where I’ll stand with that.
That’s despite the series being at the bottom of the linear ratings in the demo. That demo is the more important of the figures, as it’s who the advertisers are aiming toward, so they want to see that viewership tuning in.
So, let’s get into it.
ABC Drama Show Chances
- 911: A safe bet
- 911: Nashville: A 50/50 chance
- Grey’s Anatomy: A safe bet
- High Potential: A sure thing
- RJ Decker: Too soon to tell
- The Rookie: A 50/50 chance
- Will Trent: A sure thing
ABC Comedy Show Chances
- Abbott Elementary: A safe bet
- Scrubs revival: Too soon to tell
- Shifting Gears: A sure thing
Wait, if there are so many shows that we think are coming back, where is there room for new shows in the 2026–2027 season. This comes down to some of the scripted shows, which could see a change in the new season.
After all, Wednesdays are taken over by unscripted after the hour of comedy, but that doesn’t have to remain that way. It used to be the night for drama.
There’s also the fact that The Rookie and Will Trent are likely still to be held until the midseason, especially the latter, which we’re sure is going to return. After all, it’s ticked up in the audience numbers once again — and the fall in the demo is by just 2%, which keeps it a strong performer for the midseason. This could open the door for scripted in the fall if there are changes to the unscripted lineup.
We also have to remember that 2026 was a bit different when it came to the midseason returns. Usually, Thursday shows don’t come back until March, leaving January and February open for new episodes. We could certainly see those months filled up, should the Thursday lineup remain the same.
So, there is still room despite not looking like much will be cancelled on ABC.
Just keep in mind that this is just based on linear ratings. There are many other factors that go into cancellations and renewals, including budgets, streaming numbers, and social media interest.
